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Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Published on: 11th August, 2020

OCLC Number/Unique Identifier: 8646216717

Background: There is a huge global loss of lives due to COVID-19 pandemic, the primary epicentre of which is China, where the causative agent of the disease, SARS-CoV-2 was first emerged in December 2019. This study aims to explore the severity, in terms of case fatality rate (CFR), of COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Data of ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic were retrieved from website of the WHO, and processed for the estimation of global (both including and excluding China) CFRs of COVID-19. CFRs were explored following the naive estimates, 14-day delay estimates, and linear regression model analysis, during January 25, 2020 to April 25, 2020, on weekly basis. To explore the current situation, in terms of CFR, data for the next 13 weeks (May 2, 2020 through July 25, 2020), were processed by naive and linear regression model analysis. Results: Mean CFRs, in naive estimates, were 4.59% for the world including China, and 3.62% for the world excluding China. The 14-day delay estimates of CFRs were 15.6% globally, and 21.65% in countries outside China. Following statistical model, global (both including and excluding China) CFRs were 6.81%, by naive estimates, and ~13%, by 14-day delay estimates. Global CFRs of COVID-19 during May 2, 2020 to July 25, 2020, ranged 4.1% – 7.04%, by naive estimates, and by statistical regression analysis the CFR was 3.19%. Conclusion and recommendations: The CFR might help estimate the need of up-to-date hospital supplies and other mitigation measures for COVID-19 ongoing pandemic, and therefore, instantaneous CFR estimations are recommended.
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